NFL Super Bowl betting facts
History was never one of my favorite subjects in school. But one thing I’ve learned over the years as a sports bettor is that you have to consider what has happened in the past if you want to try and predict the future.
No, past results don’t always repeat themselves in the NFL, or any other sports league for that matter. Sports betting brings a human element into the equation, meaning anything can happen at any time, no matter what history says.
But it’s always worth looking at past track records. It’s why you grab a racing form when you enter the horse track. You want to see what these ponies have done in recent history, and also how others in similar situations have fared.
So, before you do your duty as an American sports fan on Sunday and make sure you have “an interest” when the Colts and Saints finally tee it up in Super Bowl XLIV, here are 10 things to consider and remember. And we had a couple of respected bookmakers in Las Vegas comment on a few of our facts and figures. Hopefully, reading these items will in some way help your bankroll expand, rather than deflate, come Sunday night.
Only six Super Bowls have seen 60 points or more put up on the board and just seven of the previous 43 Super Bowls have had a total higher than 50, with the over coming in three times. When last year’s game went over, it snapped a streak of four straight Super Bowl unders and overall we’ve seen six unders in the last 10 years. Before that, the Super Bowl was trending toward the high-scoring side with 11 overs out of 15 between 1985 and 1999.
9. The Saints aren’t used to the underdog role The Saints come into Sunday’s game as a 5.5-point underdog. This line opened at 3.5 at most sportsbooks last Sunday night and was quickly bet up. Before the injury information started to leak out this week regarding Indianapolis All-Pro defensive lineman Dwight Freeney, some bookmakers were predicting the line could have risen as high as seven by kickoff. But that has all changed.
7. The Colts have been pointspread darlings Conversely, if you’ve been backing Peyton Manning & Co. this season, you’ve been one happy bettor. The Colts finished the regular season 10-6 (or 10-5-1) against the spread, which ranked them third in the NFL behind the Packers and Falcons, who were both 11-5. The Colts have also covered both of their playoff games, meaning they have cashed tickets for their backers 67% of the time this season.
6. 21 is an important number With these two offenses you wouldn’t think that scoring 21 points would be a problem for either side and that’s a good thing since teams that score less than 21 points in the Super Bowl are 8-35 straight up and just 10-29 against the spread.
But since many observers believe both of these teams will get up and over that 21-point plateau on Sunday, we researched this trend even further and found that when both Super Bowl participants score 21 points or more, the favorite is 5-5 all-time, but is winless at 0-5 the last five times it happened, including last year when the Steelers (-7) beat Arizona, 27-23, and failed to cover.
5. 30 is a key number for Indy For all the talk we’ve heard about the “unstoppable” Colts offense over the last few weeks, the fact is that Indianapolis averaged 26 points per game during the regular season, which ranks it seventh in the league. (Am I the only one that remembers Indy scored just 20 points and had only 275 yards of total offense against the Ravens at home a few weeks ago?)
If the Colts want to win and cover on Sunday they’ll likely have to do slightly better than their season average since during the last 20 years Super Bowl favorites that score less than 30 points are 3-11 against the spread. One of those three victories, however, was the Colts in Super Bowl XLI when they beat the Bears, 29-17, as a 7-point chalk. Adding more credence to this trend is that the Colts are 7-1 against the number when they score 30 points or more this season. But keep in mind, the Saints only allowed more than 30 points twice this season.
4. Comebacks are rare While there have been plenty of blowouts on Super Bowl Sunday that have seen the crowd I’m typically with break out the card table and start dealing well before the fourth quarter begins, we’ve also been treated to some outstanding games. The last two years, in particular, have had fans (and bettors) on the edge of their seats until the final minutes and there hasn’t really been a wire-to-wire blowout since the Buccaneers dismantled the Raiders, 48-21, seven years ago. But one thing we haven’t seen much of on Super Bowl Sunday is come-from-behind victories. Teams that hold a first-quarter lead have won the Super Bowl 22 out of 32 times and the team that leads at the half is 33-8. So keep this in mind if you happen to be doing some “in-game” betting this Sunday.
3. Dogs have been barking If you count Super Bowl XXXI (Green Bay (-14) over New England, 35-21) and Super Bowl XXXIV (St. Louis (-7) over Tennessee, 23-16 ) as pushes, favorites are 24-17-2 in the Super Bowl, which means they cover at a 56% clip. But that trend has been turned upside down in recent years. Following the Cardinals’ cover last year, underdogs have cashed in six out of the last eight years, including two of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history – New England (+14) over St. Louis, 20-17, in 2001 and the N.Y. Giants (+12) over New England, 17-14, in 2008.
2. Is a moneyline bet the smart play? If you’ve read any of my past NFL gambling columns, you know that I’ve pointed out that the majority of time in the NFL, the team that wins the game outright covers the spread. And up until 2004 that was certainly the case in the Super Bowl as only five Super Bowls saw the pointspread come into play – meaning in 32 out of the first 37 Super Bowls the team that won the game also covered the pointspread. That, however, has changed in recent years as three of the last six Super Bowl losers have been winners at the betting window. This year the Colts are around -220 on the money line, even though they are a 5.5 favorite. “Usually a favorite like that is around -260 or -270 on the moneyline,” Colbert said. “A lot of people that like the underdog in the Super Bowl tend to play the moneyline. And people who like the favorite tend to just lay the points. But I think if you like the Colts there is a lot of value in betting the money line.”
1. The Saints are the “value” bet When it comes to betting on sports, I am constantly looking for what I like to call “value bets.” They are the kind of spots where the pointspread is out of whack for some reason or another and there is an opportunity to take advantage of a number that is more generous than it actually should be. I think we have one of those situations in Super Bowl XLIV. I can understand why the Colts are the favorite. They have been impressive all season – particularly in the playoffs – and deserve to be the chalk. But I do not think Indianapolis is a touchdown better than the Saints. And neither does Colbert.
